Compare a one-time bonus with a permanent salary raise using tenure, merit increases, bonus probability, tax assumptions, and employer retirement contributions.

The permanent raise has the higher expected cash value

Over 60 months, the difference in value today is $3,084.14, using your 4.0% discount rate and bonus probability. Employer retirement contributions are separate.

Additional cash after estimated taxes

Permanent raise cash

$11,149.19

Cumulative extra salary after entered taxes

Expected one-time bonus cash

$7,000.00

Payout × probability × after-tax share

Raise minus bonus cash

$4,149.19

Undiscounted; positive favors the raise

Cash difference in today's dollars

$3,084.14

Monthly raise payments and bonus payment date discounted separately

Raise catches up with bonus cash

39 months

First monthly payment at or after the bonus date that closes the cash gap

Catch-up using today's value

42 months

After discounting each payment; excludes retirement contributions

Cash is measured before employee retirement deductions. If earning the employer match requires additional employee contributions, budget those separately. The tool does not compute paycheck withholding.

Employer retirement dollars, kept separate

Raise: vested employer contribution

$637.10

Extra employer dollars under entered rate and vesting

Bonus: expected vested employer contribution

$400.00

Includes bonus probability and entered vesting

Employer contribution difference

$237.10

Raise minus bonus; before withdrawal taxes and investment growth

Year-by-year incremental comparison

Additional cash and employer contributions compared with keeping the current salary path
YearRaise cashBonus cashRaise employer contributionBonus employer contributionCumulative cash difference
1$2,100.00$7,000.00$120.00$400.00-$4,900.00
2$2,163.00$0.00$123.60$0.00-$2,737.00
3$2,227.89$0.00$127.31$0.00-$509.11
4$2,294.73$0.00$131.13$0.00$1,785.62
5$2,363.57$0.00$135.06$0.00$4,149.19

Only the increase over a common salary baseline is shown. The bonus is paid once. Future merit increases apply annually; partial years accrue only the entered months.

How this calculator works

Extra salary in work year y equals the initial annual raise × (1 + annual merit rate)^(y − 1). It is paid in twelve equal month-end amounts. Both choices receive the same merit increases on the salary they would otherwise earn, so shared salary cancels. A bonus is paid once at the entered month, multiplied by the entered probability.

Each cash amount is multiplied by one minus its entered incremental tax rate. Present value divides each payment by (1 + annual discount rate)^(month ÷ 12). Employer contributions use the entered effective rate and vesting share and remain separate from cash. Catch-up is reported only after the bonus date and within the selected tenure; it does not extrapolate future employment.

Compensation decision guide

Compare a bonus now with a raise that continues each year

A one-time bonus can produce more cash immediately, while a permanent raise adds recurring pay and may grow with later percentage increases. How long you remain in the job can matter more than the headline amounts.

This calculator compares incremental compensation over the same salary baseline. It shows expected after-tax cash, the timing of that cash, and employer retirement contributions separately.

How to use this tool

  1. Enter the permanent annual increase

    Use the extra yearly salary, not the new total salary or monthly paycheck change.

  2. Describe the bonus payment

    Enter its one-time amount, payment month, and the chance of actually receiving it.

  3. Set a common time horizon

    Use your expected tenure and the same future merit percentage for both salary paths.

  4. Check taxes and plan terms

    Enter tax assumptions and only the employer contributions you can earn and retain under your plan.

Example: $10,000 bonus or $3,000 annual raise?

Assume five years in the job, no future merit growth, a 30% combined incremental tax assumption for both choices, no extra employer contributions, and a 0% discount rate. The bonus provides $7,000 after estimated taxes. The raise provides $2,100 per year, or $10,500 over five years.

The raise adds $175 of after-tax cash per month, so it reaches the $7,000 bonus after 40 monthly payments. The five-year cash advantage is $3,500. If you stay only one year, the bonus instead provides $4,900 more cash. Use “Load simple example” to reproduce these figures.

Example: a 50% chance of an $8,000 bonus

Compare a $2,000 permanent raise with a one-time $8,000 bonus paid now at a 50% chance of payment. Assume two years, 5% annual merit growth, 25% tax on both, a 4% fully vested employer contribution on eligible extra pay, and no discounting.

The bonus expected value is $4,000 gross and $3,000 after estimated taxes, plus $160 in expected employer contributions. Actual after-tax bonus cash under this assumption is either $6,000 or zero. The raise adds $2,000 gross in year one and $2,100 in year two: $3,075 after estimated taxes and $164 in employer contributions. Its cash advantage is $75, with catch-up in month 24.

Bonus withholding is different from final tax

Payroll may withhold federal income tax from a bonus using a supplemental-wage method. That amount is a tax payment toward your annual liability, not a separate final tax rate for bonus income. Enter the incremental income and employee payroll tax you expect to owe under each scenario.

The calculator applies your assumed rates uniformly. It does not determine brackets, Social Security wage caps, credits, or the tax effect of employee retirement contributions.

Read the terms before valuing the offer

  • Whether the bonus is contractual, discretionary, or dependent on a target
  • Payment date, employment requirements, and any repayment or clawback clause
  • Whether future merit increases apply to the raised base
  • The retirement plan’s eligible compensation, contribution limits, and vesting schedule

Planning scenarios only. Confirm the written offer and retirement-plan terms. The model does not calculate bonus clawbacks, severance, pensions, employee deferrals, tax brackets, or contribution limits, and it assumes the raise remains in force for your entered tenure.

Sources and further reading

Frequently asked questions

How do I find when a raise is worth more than a bonus?

With no growth or discounting, divide the after-tax bonus by the extra monthly after-tax salary. The calculator also handles annual merit growth and payment timing, and shows catch-up only if it occurs within your entered tenure.

Should I use the bonus withholding percentage as its tax rate?

Use an estimate of incremental tax liability, including applicable employee payroll taxes. Withholding is a payment toward the final annual tax calculation and can be higher or lower than the eventual tax on the additional income.

Does a 50% chance mean I will receive half the bonus?

No. This model assumes the entire entered bonus is paid or no bonus is paid. Multiplying by the chance of payment produces an expected value for comparison; it does not forecast your actual payout.

Why are employer retirement contributions separate from cash?

Employer contributions may have vesting rules, contribution limits, and tax treatment that differ from wages. They are not automatically available to spend now. The tool applies your entered eligibility and vesting assumptions and does not add them to the cash-based winner.

Built for transparent, user-controlled estimates

Methodology reviewed September 13, 2026. Inputs stay in your browser; results change only when you change an assumption.

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